Opinion: Delivering EU climate security

The COP29 meeting in Baku reinforced that the world is rapidly running out of time to avert catastrophic climate change unless transformative action is taken. Having exceeded the 1.5°C warming threshold, with the potential for devastating temperature rises of up to 3°C by 2050, existing climate commitments and strategies are now insufficient to achieve net-zero targets in time.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s address at COP29 rightly emphasised that climate security underpins economic and global stability. His approach aligns energy policy with broader security considerations, making the transition to sustainable energy systems a geopolitical and environmental imperative. Therefore, efforts to cut emissions must go hand in hand with providing a secure global energy system. 

As we all know, the European Union (EU) has ambitious climate goals with their target of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. To deliver this, even with the essential scaling of renewable energy sources by 2030 (doubling of wind and tripling solar), the energy transition will still rely heavily on natural gas in the near term

The EU's overall gas demand is currently close to 330 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year, of which c.10% is met by domestic production (2023). With the EU’s c. 90% gas import dependency, the region is particularly exposed to global events and price shocks as it transitions to a lower-carbon future.

It is no surprise that LNG has emerged as a critical component of energy security. Since the crisis in Ukraine, the share of Russian gas in the EU has fallen from over 40% in 2022 to c. 8% in 2023. Increased LNG imports and additional pipeline gas production from outside the EU (predominantly from Norway) have managed to fill the gap, but continued large-scale LNG imports will remain critical for the foreseeable future.

So where is this LNG going to come from? Currently LNG accounts for nearly 60% of all globally traded gas, with three countries - USA, Australia, and Qatar - representing almost two-thirds of global LNG exports. In 2023, the United States became the world's largest LNG exporter.

The IEA highlighted (Global Gas Security Review - 2024), that over 150 bcm per year of LNG liquefaction capacity has been approved since Russia invaded Ukraine. The USA alone accounted for 75% of this new capacity. The EU has expanded LNG import capacity by 40 bcm in 2023, with a further 30 bcm expected in 2024, largely through long-term contracts to mitigate market volatility.

Mitigating market volatility has become a clear priority for many European policymakers and business leaders. How these issues can be tackled may become clearer at the World LNG Summit in Berlin and the Offshore Energy Conference in Amsterdam. At these events industry executives, government officials and stakeholders will have the opportunity to consider the challenges ahead and to discuss the role of renewables and LNG in the European energy mix.

LNG will continue to play a critical role in maintaining the EU’s energy security as part of a radical overhaul of its energy infrastructure. The task is formidable, but coordinated transformative action now can steer the EU - and the world - towards a more sustainable, and secure energy future.

By Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of Energy Transition Institute, Robert Gordon University